We expect broadband subscriptions to increase from 74.4 million in 2008 to 103 million in 2012, with growth slowing in the near term because of the weak economy and accelerating in 2011 and 2012 as economic growth improves and as the impact of new infrastructure investment takes effect, helping to extend the broadband reach. Broadband revenue will increase from $34.7 billion in 2008 to $49.2 billion in 2012, expanding at a 9.1 percent compound annual rate. Growth will drop to mid-single-digit levels in 2009 and 2010 and then return to double-digit annual gains in 2011 and 2012.

Source: 2009 ICT Market Review & Forecast

Though not immune from the economic downturn, there are unique opportunities for growth in the coming three years in this market. Most notable will be the surge in investment in backbone infrastructure. Network capacity is being gobbled up at alarming rates owing in large part to the growth of video streaming and internet video. Between 2006 and 2008, the amount of global internet traffic more than doubled; it’s expected to double again by 2010 and to quadruple by 2012. To meet this surge in demand, providers are investing heavily in extending the fiber infrastructure. In addition to PON and GPON, providers are also adopting fiber-to-the-telecommunications-enclosure, or FTTE. This investment will mean a double-digit rise, 15.9 percent, in revenues in backbone infrastructure for 2009. There will be more modest single digit revenue increases in 2010 and 2011, before finally falling off in 2012, when backbone infrastructure should be built out.

For the first time in 2008, the majority of landline voice delivery was through bundled packages that include broadband and television. That trend looks to continue unabated through 2012, when the report authors project that more than 96 percent of landline voice delivery will be made through bundled services.

Want to know more? Preview this section of the report.

• TIA 2009 ICT Market Review & Forecast:
  The Backbone Infrastructure preview (359kb, pdf)

• Section I: Landline Market Overview
  • Landline Voice Services
  • Internet Access
  • Internet Protocol Television
  • Network Infrastructure
  • Support Services
  • Research and Development
• Section II: Landline Subscription Services Market
  • Circuit-switched Voice Market
  • Landline Competition
  • Internet Access
  • IPTV
  • Addressable Advertising
• Section III: Voice over the Internet Protocol
  • E911
  • The Outlook for VoIP
• Section IV: Network Infrastructure
  • Fiber-optic Cable
  • Access Infrastructure
  • Backbone Infrastructure
  • Central Office Infrastructure
  • Total Landline Infrastructure
  • Services in Support of Network Infrastructure Equipment
  • Overall Equiment and Support Services
• Section V: Prepaid Calling Cards
  • Marketing Pratices and Government Regulation

Despite the economy, the build-out of backbone infrastructure will keep this portion of the landline market in the black through 2011.